Get The Basics Right

It’s Time for Real Water Security Solutions

The summer of 2019/20 was a terrifying glimpse into our future. The Macquarie/Wambuul River, the lifeblood of our region, came perilously close to running dry as Burrendong Dam’s water levels dropped to less than 2%. Dubbo was just months away from a water crisis that would have forced evacuations. This was not just a bad drought; it was a policy failure.

Our Water Rules are Broken – Get Involved Here

The rules that govern our water supply are dangerously outdated. They are based on rainfall data from last century, legally ignoring the severe droughts of the last 22 years. This means our government is allocating water that simply isn’t there, leaving our community exposed and our river on the brink of collapse every time the rains fail. This is not sustainable, and it is not responsible.

Its Time for Common Sense – Four Steps to Getting the Basics Right

1: End ‘Paper Water’

Problem: Allocation of water not physically present in the dam. 

Water is credited to irrigation accounts based on assumptions about future inflows, rather than on water physically held in Burrendong Dam. As of July 2025, 23% of water in users’ accounts didn’t actually exist. When actual inflows fall below the assumed minimum inflows, as occurs regularly, allocated water exceeds the physical water available in the system. This creates a structural deficit that cannot be met.

Ask: Only allocate water that is physically in the dam.

2: Update Drought Planning

Problem: Capped ‘Drought of Record’.

The ‘drought of record’ used for water planning and allocating assumptions is capped at pre-2004 levels. This excludes both the Millennium Drought and the 2017-2020 drought, which have been classified as the worst droughts on record in the northern basin. This creates a planning horizon of approximately two years, insufficient for managing water security under increasingly variable climatic conditions.

Ask: Accelerate the Minimum Inflows Review that is required to be complete by June 2026 and ensure the ‘drought of record’ is updated.

3: Automatic Priority Protections

Problem: Drought management allows the priorities under the law to be inverted. 

When drought hits, current water sharing plan rules automatically switch off basic environmental flows called (‘planned environmental water’) and basic landholder rights, while restrictions on irrigation water require discretionary ministerial intervention. This inverts the priorities that should be protecting the environment and communities first.

Ask: Embed clear and complete drought management rules in water sharing plans that protect communities and the environment first during drought. 

4: Basic Transparency – Make all water data and decisions public in real-time

A systemic failure to provide public access to critical water data and decision-making processes has eroded public trust, hindered effective environmental management, and contributed to a culture of water theft and severe ecological crises.

Problem: Water models are a black box.

The accuracy of the modelling used to determine water extraction limits is of ongoing concern to the community. These models are the very foundation of water allocation, yet they are opaque and their results are often inconsistent with real-world observations.

A peer-reviewed scientific paper, Statistically Integrated Flow and Flood Modelling Compared to Hydrologically Integrated Quantity and Quality Model for Annual Flows in the Regulated Macquarie River in Arid Australia, provides a proven example of the inaccuracy of the government’s water models. The report compares actual flows in the Wambuul-Macquarie River with results from the government’s model system and found significant discrepancies.

The report shows that the model considerably underestimates large flows in the unregulated river, and overestimates flows in the regulated river. This has led to the government claiming there is a 22% reduction in flows due to regulation, when the observed data shows there is a 43% reduction in flows.

This is not a minor error. It is a fundamental misrepresentation of the impact of regulation on the river system, with profound consequences for how much water is allocated and the health of the river.

Asks: 

• Live tracking of dam releases with a clear breakdown showing the volume of water allocated to operational requirements, the environment, town water supplies, basic landholder rights, and irrigation extraction.    
• Extraction limits are expressed as clear numeric volumes in each water sharing plan.
• Water sharing plans require the actual volume of water extracted to be published every year besides the numeric extraction limit. 
• Models used to calculate extraction limits must be calibrated annually with observed data and made available for independent audit.
• Full public access to all water models including all inputs, assumptions, code, and validation data.
• A complete public register of all investigations into water theft and penalties issued.